Sunday, May 31, 2026 - Is Decline the Whole Story
May 31, 2026
Deborah Laforet
“Is Decline the Whole Story?”
Let us pray. May the words from my lips and the meditations of my heart be guided by your
Spirit and be words of wisdom for this day. Amen.
The United Church of Canada is promoting a project they call, "Toward 2035.” It’s an
opportunity to have conversations and consider a strategic direction. The 10-year strategic direction
approved by the 45th General Council Executive in November 2025 describes a preferred future. In
2035:
The United Church of Canada, inspired, resilient, and diverse contextual communities of disciples seek
to continue the story of Jesus by embodying Christ’s presence in the world.
The church is present and deeply connected coast-to-coast-to-coast in rural and urban settings, and in
ecumenical and global relationships.
Guided by hope-filled, adaptive, and effective ministry leaders, the denomination is increasingly
multigenerational, multiracial, and intercultural.
This is where The United Church of Canada wants to be nine years from now. If we had to sit
down and write where we hope to be in 2035, what might we write? What might inspire us as we move
towards a vision and what might inspire those around us to join us in that vision?
Here at St. Paul’s, we are fortunate. Our numbers have dropped and our givings have lessened,
so there is reason to worry, but we are also being proactive about our future. How do we reach a point
where we don’t have to completely rely on givings? How do we manage a space that is not so reliant on
volunteers? How do we connect more with the community and partner with the community so we’re not
striving to achieve our mission and vision alone? These are all questions we are asking and we have
actually moved beyond the asking and the talking. We are putting a plan into action, we are taking risks,
and we are moving forward in hope and in prayer, open to where the Spirit might lead us.
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I can only speak from my experience in the United Church, but there are a lot of churches that
are closing. There are churches who can’t afford a full time minister and sometimes even a part time
minister, so they’re figuring out what to do without. Because of the stresses around decline in
membership and givings, some communities of faith are in conflict and are actively hurting one another.
I have heard lots of stories of bullies, sometimes from within the congregation and sometimes from paid
staff, including the minister. People are afraid. They are grieving what was. They are at a loss.
These stories make me sad, but I also know that this is probably a necessary process. Again, I
can only speak from within the United Church, although I know other denominations are feeling the
same pressures, but the church needs to become smaller and more nimble. We just don’t have the people
to support what used to be the largest denomination in Canada with hundreds of thousands of people.
Here is the question asked in the “Toward 2035” report: Is decline the whole story? Human
beings have a negativity bias. Our brains has evolved to identify threats. They had to, for our survival.
At times though, this means many in the church find it difficult to see a future. You saw the statistics
last week, the decline from 1992 to 2023 and the projected decline for 2035. When we look at those
numbers, we might think there is no hope for the church. We might hold tighter to what we have here
and now, and work hard to try to capture what was had in the past.
It’s difficult to move forward with positivity when we look at those numbers, but maybe we need
to start focusing on the good that is happening, and there is good. We see it here at St. Paul’s. We need
to be aware of the decline and not deny that the church is changing, but maybe we also need to start
sharing the positive stories and start celebrating where the Spirit is at work.
For example: In 2023, out of a total of 1976 pastoral charges, 205 reported an increase in
membership, 604 reported an increase in worship attendance, 189 baptized adults (12 years or older),
316 welcomed people by profession of faith, and around 1500 people joined a United Church.
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Also, to be aware of the need: 60% of Canadians expressed a felt sense of stress or concern for
mental well-being, wondering about living to life’s fullest potential, and lacking meaningful
relationships, and how we might fill that need: 49% still express a belief in God or a higher power and
45% of these engage in a practice of prayer.
The Toward 2035 report states: “Moving forward will require a willingness to experiment within
an environment of imagination, learning as we go. We must faithfully and courageously try different
things and learn from our experiences and each other. Vision gives us something to look for in the world
that we want to see happen. We need visions and dreams because we are designed to watch for the things
we do not want to see; that we want to avoid.”
I was on a call this week, where the Moderator of the United Church, Kimberly Heath, was
present. She mentioned this scripture that Judy read today. This scripture passage, as Judy stated, falls
during a time when the Israelites are in Babylon, exiled from their home. As foreigners living amidst of
people with a different culture and different values, they would have struggled to find their footing.
Many believed that God resided in the temple in Jerusalem, so they felt very far away from their God.
They would have had to rethink their beliefs and consider whether God resided among them in other
ways. Their minds would have been stretched.
On my call with the Moderator, she emphasized verse two of this passage, where it reads,
“Enlarge your tent, stretch out your hangings, lengthen your ropes and strengthen your stakes!” She
talked about this sense of stretching, and lengthening, of broadening, whether it be our minds, our hearts,
our faith, the mission of our faith communities. Everything feels like it is being stretched right now.
Sometimes, things will snap and we will have to start from scratch. Other times, the stretching will
settle and become the new norm. I think about our clothes that sometimes have to be thrown out when
we grow larger and that sometimes grow with us.
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At the end of this passage read for us today, we heard, “...with everlasting love I will gather
you.” It’s an assurance. Even if God seems far away or if God seems to have abandoned us or
abandoned the church, we read that with tenderness and with love, we will be gathered.
As we gather, as we celebrate and grieve, as we share our joys and struggles, we know that God,
Spirit, Creator, is in our midst, loving us each of us with tenderness, and gathering us together with love,
and we give thanks.
Last week, we prayed together, a prayer written for this Towards 2035 project. I invite you to
join with me in praying again.
A Prayer for Communities of Faith
Gracious and loving God, you called into being
this United Church of Canada,
one expression of Jesus’ beloved community,
here in the particularities of our place and our time.
For the past 100 years, you have guided and sustained
and called us back when we have erred.
Now, as we look back, we also look forward,
daring to believe that even among us,
even in this very place, you are doing a new thing.
We long to perceive it, like a way through a wilderness,
for the sake of our neighbours,
for the sake of this world of beautiful and broken things,
yearning to be made whole, yearning to be made new.